Washington Trust Bank Monthly Economic Update

Economic Update - 11/20/2025


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Summary

After delays due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released September's employment data today (11/20/25). 


Soundbite.

Despite all of the concerns that the nation was headed for negative jobs growth, the nation added 119,000 jobs in September. The BLS revised the previous two months, which resulted in a net reduction of 33,000 jobs compared to the original estimates. Employees continued to see wage growth as average weekly earnings rose 3.8%. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4% due to strong growth in the labor force. 

Establishment survey.

Eight industries experienced jobs growth, six experienced job losses and one industry was unchanged compared to August. The Healthcare and Leisure & Hospitality sectors accounted for 87.7% of total net jobs growth. The Transportation & Utilities and Professional & Business Services sectors experienced the biggest job losses.


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From an income perspective the Information sector experienced the strongest year-over-year growth in average weekly earnings at a 7.5% growth rate. The Utilities sector had the slowest growth at 1.2%.
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Employees care more about how much their wage increased (i.e., dollars) versus the growth rate of their wages. Examined this way, The gap between the highest and lowest dollar increases was $120.48 per week. The industry with the strongest jobs growth (Healthcare) had the lowest increase in average weekly earnings. 


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Hourly workers did not experience any additional income from working longer hours as the average work week remained unchanged at 34.2 hours.


Household survey.

The Household Survey showed a 251,000 increase in people who reported they were employed and a 470,000 increase in the labor force. This resulted in unemployment rate rising but also resulted in an increase in the labor force participation rate. 

Unemployment
Based on the data below, the composite person who suffered the most was an Asian woman with Some College or Associate degree. The composite person who fared the best was a teenage Black person with a High School degree.


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People at Work Part-Time
The number of people working part-time due to slack work or business conditions fell by 60,000 and the number of people working part-time because they could only find part-time work fell by 138,000. 

Multiple Job Holders
The number of people working multiple jobs rose 17,000 while the number of people working multiple jobs as a percentage of total employed people remained unchanged at 5.4%. 

Existing Unemployed
For those who were already unemployed, the average length of unemployment fell from 24.5 weeks to 24.1 weeks. The percentage of people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more fell from 25.7% to 23.6%. This is most likely due to people giving up looking for work.


Conclusions.

  • The nation is still creating jobs and the pace of jobs growth rebounded from the sluggish pace of the last three months.

  • Average weekly earnings continue to grow close to 4%. This does not necessarily offset the rise in prices depending on what type of job you have.

  • In a sign that wage growth may not be offsetting price growth, the number of people working multiple jobs continues to increase.

  • September's employment report will most likely add fuel to the debate within the Federal Reserve as to whether it should lower rates in December. Rates were lowered because of the weak jobs growth over past three months. The rebound in September will add to the data for those members who believe the Federal Reserve should pause in December.



Steve Scranton
About the author

Steve Scranton, CFA
Chief Economist

Steve is the Economist for Washington Trust Bank and holds a Chartered Financial Analyst® designation with over 40 years of economic and financial markets experience.

Throughout the Pacific Northwest, Steve is a well-known speaker on the economic conditions and the world financial markets. He also actively participates on committees within the bank to help design strategies and policies related to bank-owned investments.
 
As the Economist for Washington Trust Bank, Steve participates in public speaking engagements, as well as authoring multiple communications, to keep our clients informed of economic and financial market conditions.

Content Authenticity Statement:
The Economic Perspectives newsletter is comprised entirely of the expertise, thoughts, perspectives and opinions of the author with no use of generative AI. Data is sourced from the original providers (typically government agencies) and analyzed by the author.