Fixed Income & Equities Markets Week in Review

Benchmark Treasury yields are on track for a fifth consecutive week of minimal movement, rivaling one of the longest stretches of low volatility in the past two decades. Since 2006, the median weekly trading range for the 10-year Treasury yield has been roughly 16 basis points, according to Bloomberg. Since early December, that range has been less than 10 basis points, marking the longest comparable period of calm since 2020.

This stability has persisted despite several notable risk events, including December’s employment report, the Department of Justice’s investigation related to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and renewed concerns around potential military action involving Iran. Even so, the 10-year Treasury yield has remained tightly range-bound between 4.1% and 4.2% since mid-December.

The last time Treasury yields were this subdued for an extended period was in the fall of 2020, when the 10-year yield traded between 0.64% and 0.80% for roughly six weeks. That calm ultimately gave way to a sharp rise in yields as COVID vaccine rollouts signaled economic recovery and large-scale fiscal spending began to take shape. While today’s environment is clearly different, the episode serves as a reminder that prolonged periods of low volatility can precede meaningful moves.

Turning to Federal Reserve developments, the week began with Chair Powell releasing a video statement addressing an investigation initiated by the Department of Justice related to his testimony on the reconstruction of three Federal Reserve buildings. Powell characterized the inquiry as another attempt by the Administration to pressure the Fed into cutting rates more aggressively than the FOMC believes is appropriate. President Trump told reporters he was unaware of the investigation until questioned by the media.

Powell is not required to step down as Chair until his term expires and a successor is confirmed by the Senate. However, the situation has introduced additional political complexity. Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a Republican member of the Senate Banking Committee, has stated he will oppose all Fed nominees until the investigation is dropped. Given the committee’s narrow 13–11 Republican majority, his opposition effectively blocks new appointments so long as Democrats remain unified.

The investigation raises uncertainty around the eventual transition away from Powell. Some observers believe it may encourage him to remain on the Board of Governors even after his term as Chair ends, with his board term running through 2028. Separately, Governor Stephen Miran’s term is scheduled to expire at the end of this month, though procedural rules allow him to remain in place until a successor is nominated and confirmed. Miran has been the most consistently dovish member of the committee since his appointment in September, dissenting at each fourth-quarter meeting in favor of a faster and more aggressive pace of rate cuts. His seat was widely expected to be filled by the President’s choice for the next Fed Chair, assuming the selection does not come from within the existing Board.

Finally, the Federal Reserve has now entered its pre-meeting communications blackout ahead of the January 28 FOMC meeting. Futures markets have effectively priced out any chance of a policy change at that meeting, reinforcing the broader sense of near-term stability that continues to define the Treasury market.

As of January 16, 2026